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Noise : a flaw in human judgment
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indist...
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| Auteurs principaux : | , , |
|---|---|
| Format : | Livre |
| Langue : | anglais |
| Titre complet : | Noise : a flaw in human judgment / Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein |
| Publié : |
London :
William Collins
, C 2021 |
| Description matérielle : | 1 vol. (IX-454 pages) |
| Sujets : |
- Introduction: Two kinds of error
- Part I. Finding noise
- Crime and noisy punishment
- A noisy system
- Singular decisions
- Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument
- Matters of judgment
- Measuring error
- The analysis of noise
- Occasion noise
- How groups amplify noise
- Part III. Noise in predictive judgments
- Judgments and models
- Noiseless rules
- Objective ignorance
- The valley of the normal
- Part IV. How noise happens
- Heuristics, biases, and noise
- The matching operation
- Scale
- Patterns
- The sources of noise
- Part V. Improving judgments
- Better judges for better judgment
- Debiasing and decision hygiene
- Sequencing information in forensic science
- Selection and aggregation in forecasting
- Guidelines in medicine
- Defining the scale in performance ratings
- Structure in hiring
- The mediating assessments protocol
- Part VI. Optimal noise
- The costs of noise reduction
- Dignity
- Rules or standards?
- Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously
- Epilogue: A less noisy world
- Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit
- Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer
- Appendix C: Correcting predictions